Ukraine’s good news

08/11/2023 Is Ukraine’s dream of EU membership closer to reality? Thanks in large part to Zelenskiy’s wartime leadership, Brussels has recommended formally opening accession talks – but an extraordinary struggle lies ahead

Katherine Butler Even before Russia’s full-scale ground and air invasion in February 2022, the idea of Ukraine being deemed ready to join the European Union any time soon would have seemed far-fetched if not delusional. Not only had the country already been invaded by Russia in the previous decade and lacked the basic democratic standards required of EU member states, but nobody within the EU had the stomach for the internal reforms that enlargement would involve. France and others had effectively placed a moratorium on letting any more countries join. As one expert told the Guardian, EU enlargement was regarded as “clinically dead”. Yet on Wednesday (last week), with war still raging, many of Ukraine’s cities in ruins and millions of Ukrainians dispersed around the continent as refugees, Brussels fired the starting gun on a historic phase of EU expansion – to take in Ukraine. The European Commission officially recommended that EU leaders formally open membership talks with Kyiv and the former Soviet republic Moldova. So is the dream cherished by many Ukrainians in the 10 years since the Maidan uprising, becoming reality? Announcing the recommendation, the European commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said Ukraine had completed “well over” 90% of the necessary steps. Legally, Kyiv must meet seven conditions covering such things as reforming its judiciary, fighting corruption, rooting out the influence of oligarchs on the economy, guaranteeing the independence of the media and rights for minorities. The commission’s 1,200-page report concluded that Ukraine has done enough to justify opening negotiations provided the remaining benchmarks are reached. Von der Leyen’s surprise trip to Kyiv last Saturday, where she talked about “excellent progress”, was seen by many as the nod Ukraine wanted. This of course, is not in von der Leyen’s gift. The report now goes to the EU heads of government. They will have to unanimously agree if they want accession negotiations to begin. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, recently pictured shaking the hand of Vladimir Putin, may choose to be difficult. But assuming that the leaders take the momentous decision to start accession talks at a December summit, an extraordinary struggle still lies ahead to meet the criteria, which is why Ukraine is not being given a target date for joining. Seven other countries, including Turkey, are already in the EU waiting room and their stop-start experience is testament to how politically difficult and protracted this process is. Dermot Hodson, professor of political economy at Loughborough University London and the author of the recently published book, Circle of Stars: a History of the EU and the People Who Made It, told me the decision was not about legality but about morale and momentum. “Events require this decision. The EU can’t be seen to let Ukraine down now, or signal this is not going ahead. They can’t turn back so they agree to open accession negotiations. But this is not the same as membership, and there is strong reason to believe that negotiations will be interminable and perhaps even inconclusive.” Hodson said that the war and Ukraine’s security vulnerability – it is not a Nato member – and the burden its relative poverty and reconstruction needs would place on the EU budget were daunting obstacles. The “best-case scenario” he told me, was that Ukraine could be admitted by 2030, not a timeframe Kyiv will be satisfied with, particularly with the threat of a Trump-led US strategically disengaging from the crisis after 2024. The EU stands accused of geopolitical weakness. It is too divided on the Israel-Palestine question for example, to be able to wield enough global influence even to alleviate the suffering, let alone help to broker a long-term political settlement. Elsewhere in the world, its ambitions to be a force for democracy have come adrift – ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh the most recent indictment of its failings. But Russia’s war on Ukraine galvanised the bloc with a sense of unity and democratic purpose. And President Volodymr Zelenskiy will not easily let go of the prize of his country being part of “free” Europe. Germany also is conscious that urgency is required: last week it proposed fast-tracking single market access for Ukraine and granting Kyiv observer status at summits. Berlin knows that too many “false dawns” are a recipe for the spread of Kremlin-fed disinformation and euroscepticism in countries left on the outside of the club. False dawns almost certainly lie ahead for Ukraine. Just ratifying the changes needed to the EU’s internal functioning is a headache few politicians want to contemplate. But EU expansion – the biggest since 2004 when 10 countries joined in a “big bang” – is now on the cards. On Wednesday, the European Commission also recommended opening accession talks with Bosnia and Herzegovina (subject to tough conditions) and putting Georgia on the eventual path to accession. It may take years, but war is steadily reshaping Europe. Thanks for reading. Please scroll down for more of this week’s highlights. Check our Europe and Ukraine live blogs for the latest updates and share any feedback or thoughts by emailing europenow@theguardian.com. Until next week, Katherine Butler Associate editor, Europe

The latest from Ukraine

Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Independence Square) in Kyiv. Photograph: Emre Çaylak/The Guardian 1 Life on the frontline in Kherson: dodging shells, facing death and refusing to leave. 2 21st-century trench warfare – the Ukrainian battlefield in pictures. 3 ‘A calm and gentle individual’: Yampil the bear becomes the first Ukrainian animal rehomed in UK. 4 Zelenskiy denies he is under pressure to enter peace talks with Russia.

The biggest ground offensive in Europe since World War II

Russia started its invasion of Ukraine on Thursday February 24, 2022, with airstrikes on cities and military bases. Russian troops and tanks then entered the country on three sides and reached the outskirts of the capital, Kyiv, on Friday, in the biggest ground offensive in Europe since World War II. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned other countries not to come to Ukraine’s aid, reminding the world of Russia’s nuclear weapons stockpile and threatening “consequences you have never seen.” Ukrainian leaders said their military was fighting back, and that dozens of their soldiers and hundreds of Russian troops had been killed. They said Russian forces had seized control of the decommissioned Chernobyl nuclear power plant in an attack that could “cause another ecological disaster” at the site of the world’s worst nuclear meltdown. [The Associated Press, The Washington Post]

Thousands of people across Russia took to the streets but were silenced. Opposition activist Tatyana Usmanova called the invasion “a disgrace” and she asked for “forgiveness” from Ukrainians.

“We didn’t vote for those who unleashed the war,”

she said.

Despite hundreds of arrests daily, and nearly 3,000 total since the invasion began, demonstrators held signs and marched through the centres of cities from Moscow to Siberia, chanting “No to war!” in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Russia’s smaller neighbour.

It is good to hear how International businesses operating in Russia and Ukraine one after the other started closing offices and factories after Russia invaded Ukraine, all facing dark days for all of us.

Siemens Energy CEO Christian Bruchtold shareholders at their annual meeting.

“The attack on Ukraine represents a turning point in Europe; a war was simply unthinkable for many people, especially the younger generations.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had agreed to send a Ukrainian delegation to negotiate with Russia near Ukraine’s border with Belarus. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who allowed Russian President Vladimir Putin to use Belarus as a staging ground for his invasion, arranged the meeting. But we could see yesterday that Russia did not keep to the agreement to have a corridor for the civilians to flee the terrorised cities. As soon they drove out of those cities they were shot at by the Russians, and as such were driven back to where they came from.

The European Union has shut down its airspace to commercial and private Russian airplanes and committed, along with several member countries (including non-NATO Sweden and Finland), to arming Ukraine. And perhaps most astonishing of all, Europe and the United States (joined even by perennially neutral Switzerland) have put together a package of economic sanctions far more severe than anything anticipated prior to the outbreak of hostilities. There’s now a very real possibility Russia could be plunged into a catastrophic economic tailspin.

Last Sunday Russian President Vladimir Putin said he was putting Russian nuclear deterrence forces on high alert due to what he called “aggressive statements” Western nations were making against Russia.  Yesterday he went a step further, calling all those who wanted to interfere with his peace mission, dangerous attackers of his state, to which he will not shrink from counterattacking. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen her call for promptly opening EU membership talks, Putin considers as a war declaration.

Elon Musk came to help Ukraine maintain internet access as it fights a Russian invasion. Musk’s private rocket company SpaceX has deployed thousands of Starlink satellites into low-Earth orbit, establishing a network over the last three years to beam high-speed internet service to users from more than 100 miles up. The service can work in parts of the world with limited conventional internet infrastructure. Since Russia invaded, Ukraine has experienced internet disruptions, so Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, asked Musk to send Starlink terminals.

Russia’s central bank on Monday hiked a key interest rate from 9.5 percent to 20 percent to fight inflation and depreciation of the ruble, after the Russian currency fell by 30 percent to a record low against the dollar as Europe and the U.S. imposed harsh sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The move came after the United States, European Union, Canada, and the United Kingdom over the weekend announced plans to cut off some Russian banks from the SWIFT financial support network, a global payment system connecting international banks. The allies also said they would take steps to thwart the Russian central bank’s attempt to boost Russia’s economy with its more than $600 billion in reserves, part of an escalating push by the West for Moscow to negotiate peace.

Ukrainians are fleeing en masse to clogged borders of European neighbours, with the biggest share heading to Poland while smaller numbers try to reach Hungary, Moldova, Slovakia, and Romania. More than 500,000 Ukrainians have left for Europe since Russian forces invaded on Thursday and Europe expects this going to grow to 1,5 million. Over previous weekend, one crossing into Poland had a line nearly nine miles long. The exodus has been the biggest Europe has seen in years, with some authorities bracing for a humanitarian crisis like the one that occurred in 2015 when more than a million refugees arrived from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, and other countries. Many European nations were hostile to the refugees who arrived in 2015, but so far they have said they would welcome Ukrainians.

Big question for Europe is now how long it can stand at the sideline.

Switzerland has edged away from its long-standing tradition of neutrality. Finland is not comfortable with Putin’s aggressive expansionism, which may also have its eyes on several of Russia’s neighbouring countries. It is on the cusp of asking for admission into the NATO alliance after decades of standing to the side. Germany, after a nearly 80-year break from militarism, is suddenly beefing up its defence budget and sending arms to Ukraine.  Previously, neutrality for countries like Finland and Switzerland had benefits to those countries — and to the world at large, but in which way is a neutrality tenable?