Ukraine’s good news

08/11/2023 Is Ukraine’s dream of EU membership closer to reality? Thanks in large part to Zelenskiy’s wartime leadership, Brussels has recommended formally opening accession talks – but an extraordinary struggle lies ahead

Katherine Butler Even before Russia’s full-scale ground and air invasion in February 2022, the idea of Ukraine being deemed ready to join the European Union any time soon would have seemed far-fetched if not delusional. Not only had the country already been invaded by Russia in the previous decade and lacked the basic democratic standards required of EU member states, but nobody within the EU had the stomach for the internal reforms that enlargement would involve. France and others had effectively placed a moratorium on letting any more countries join. As one expert told the Guardian, EU enlargement was regarded as “clinically dead”. Yet on Wednesday (last week), with war still raging, many of Ukraine’s cities in ruins and millions of Ukrainians dispersed around the continent as refugees, Brussels fired the starting gun on a historic phase of EU expansion – to take in Ukraine. The European Commission officially recommended that EU leaders formally open membership talks with Kyiv and the former Soviet republic Moldova. So is the dream cherished by many Ukrainians in the 10 years since the Maidan uprising, becoming reality? Announcing the recommendation, the European commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said Ukraine had completed “well over” 90% of the necessary steps. Legally, Kyiv must meet seven conditions covering such things as reforming its judiciary, fighting corruption, rooting out the influence of oligarchs on the economy, guaranteeing the independence of the media and rights for minorities. The commission’s 1,200-page report concluded that Ukraine has done enough to justify opening negotiations provided the remaining benchmarks are reached. Von der Leyen’s surprise trip to Kyiv last Saturday, where she talked about “excellent progress”, was seen by many as the nod Ukraine wanted. This of course, is not in von der Leyen’s gift. The report now goes to the EU heads of government. They will have to unanimously agree if they want accession negotiations to begin. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, recently pictured shaking the hand of Vladimir Putin, may choose to be difficult. But assuming that the leaders take the momentous decision to start accession talks at a December summit, an extraordinary struggle still lies ahead to meet the criteria, which is why Ukraine is not being given a target date for joining. Seven other countries, including Turkey, are already in the EU waiting room and their stop-start experience is testament to how politically difficult and protracted this process is. Dermot Hodson, professor of political economy at Loughborough University London and the author of the recently published book, Circle of Stars: a History of the EU and the People Who Made It, told me the decision was not about legality but about morale and momentum. “Events require this decision. The EU can’t be seen to let Ukraine down now, or signal this is not going ahead. They can’t turn back so they agree to open accession negotiations. But this is not the same as membership, and there is strong reason to believe that negotiations will be interminable and perhaps even inconclusive.” Hodson said that the war and Ukraine’s security vulnerability – it is not a Nato member – and the burden its relative poverty and reconstruction needs would place on the EU budget were daunting obstacles. The “best-case scenario” he told me, was that Ukraine could be admitted by 2030, not a timeframe Kyiv will be satisfied with, particularly with the threat of a Trump-led US strategically disengaging from the crisis after 2024. The EU stands accused of geopolitical weakness. It is too divided on the Israel-Palestine question for example, to be able to wield enough global influence even to alleviate the suffering, let alone help to broker a long-term political settlement. Elsewhere in the world, its ambitions to be a force for democracy have come adrift – ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh the most recent indictment of its failings. But Russia’s war on Ukraine galvanised the bloc with a sense of unity and democratic purpose. And President Volodymr Zelenskiy will not easily let go of the prize of his country being part of “free” Europe. Germany also is conscious that urgency is required: last week it proposed fast-tracking single market access for Ukraine and granting Kyiv observer status at summits. Berlin knows that too many “false dawns” are a recipe for the spread of Kremlin-fed disinformation and euroscepticism in countries left on the outside of the club. False dawns almost certainly lie ahead for Ukraine. Just ratifying the changes needed to the EU’s internal functioning is a headache few politicians want to contemplate. But EU expansion – the biggest since 2004 when 10 countries joined in a “big bang” – is now on the cards. On Wednesday, the European Commission also recommended opening accession talks with Bosnia and Herzegovina (subject to tough conditions) and putting Georgia on the eventual path to accession. It may take years, but war is steadily reshaping Europe. Thanks for reading. Please scroll down for more of this week’s highlights. Check our Europe and Ukraine live blogs for the latest updates and share any feedback or thoughts by emailing europenow@theguardian.com. Until next week, Katherine Butler Associate editor, Europe

The latest from Ukraine

Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Independence Square) in Kyiv. Photograph: Emre Çaylak/The Guardian 1 Life on the frontline in Kherson: dodging shells, facing death and refusing to leave. 2 21st-century trench warfare – the Ukrainian battlefield in pictures. 3 ‘A calm and gentle individual’: Yampil the bear becomes the first Ukrainian animal rehomed in UK. 4 Zelenskiy denies he is under pressure to enter peace talks with Russia.